Post by Cincinnati Reds (Mike) on May 7, 2014 21:20:12 GMT -6
So since we're only a start or two away from Masahiro Tanaka being able to go up for auction, who's in position to get him? A couple years ago, Darvish went for $25 after reaching eligibility. Tanaka's actually gotten off to a better start than Yu did (although I'm not sure he has the same eventual ceiling.) It's interesting (and rare for our league) for there to be such a high-quality guy on free agency in the middle of the season.
Breaking teams into categories...
TOO LITTLE MONEY, TOO LITTLE FLEXIBILITY:
Barring a move to clear cap, these teams aren't getting Tanaka:
Phillies
A's
Reds
Indians
Nationals
Rockies
Mets
MONEY TO SPEND:
These teams have the open salary to pay for Tanaka right now (I'm guessing $25-30) and are certainly favorites to land him.
Orioles - $27.9 available (the only team in this group that also looks to be a contender this year...although Tanaka makes sense for teams in rebuild mode too)
Angels - $30.3 available
Pirates - $34.65 available
NOT OBVIOUS, BUT STRONG CONTENDERS:
These teams don't have the cap space that the previous three do, but they also have very droppable expiring contracts that could suddenly put them right in the conversation.
Yankees - $17.4 available + can gain $8.9 from Kendrys Morales - when Morales finally signs with a team, he'd be valuable to Yanks. But if that doesn't happen until after the draft, Yanks may not have a shot at the playoffs anyway. (Would NEVER have guessed that Yanks would be sitting in last in that division.)
Tigers - $9.8 available + can gain $18 from CC Sabathia - swapping a former Yankees ace for a current one? Tigers is off to a good start, but this swap could help him now and later.
Royals - $23.2 available + could gain $6-7 from Dickey or Kuroda - Royals is nearly in the picture in terms of cap space anyway. His team is playing well this year, and Kuroda and Dickey are both still valuable and neither one is a gross overpay. However, Royals also has a great young core to be competitive for the next few years too. Tanaka makes them better going forward, and cutting someone to get that few extra bucks might be worth it.
Rays - $15.8 available + could gain $14 from Andre Ethier - Hanging around .500 right now, Rays also has depth in the OF (Heyward, Myers, Aoki, Crisp), making Ethier that much more expendable.
WILD CARDS?:
These two teams don't have a lot of money, and they don't have any easy way to immediately get the cash needed to make an offer. They each have a bad contract or two, but they extend into 2015. However, these are also two of the most active teams in the league, and if they really wanted to make a play, I'm sure they could pull off a few moves to make it happen.
Braves - $17.1 available. Mark Teixeira isn't terribly value to this team, and he could free up $6.5, which gets Braves to the fringe of the needed salary. However, he also has an option for next year that would vest if he were dropped. Josh Johnson (2015) could add a couple more bucks.
Cardinals - $9.2 available. Brandon Morrow's contract runs through 2015, and cutting him would free up $8.5. Still not enough. Will Venable is expiring and would return $4...Mitch Moreland is expiring and frees up $2. J.J. Hardy frees up $8.5 and could be replaced by Xander. Multiple cuts could make this happen, but a trade seems more Cards' style if he wants to make a run at it. He could trade one of the aforementioned guys and recover more than 50% of their cap. Or could he look to trade Carlos Gonzalez, an elite talent, but the most expensive guy in the league? O's is a contender, what if Cards offered CarGo for Jayson Werth, whose contract ends after this year and frees up $30 to go after Tanaka?
Obviously, this is all for fun, and hell, I don't even know who actually wants Tanaka. If I had to pick a team or two that make a lot of sense to me, I would go with the Royals or the Angels (who have the money and also badly need some improved pitching, but have overpays coming off the books this winter.)
Breaking teams into categories...
TOO LITTLE MONEY, TOO LITTLE FLEXIBILITY:
Barring a move to clear cap, these teams aren't getting Tanaka:
Phillies
A's
Reds
Indians
Nationals
Rockies
Mets
MONEY TO SPEND:
These teams have the open salary to pay for Tanaka right now (I'm guessing $25-30) and are certainly favorites to land him.
Orioles - $27.9 available (the only team in this group that also looks to be a contender this year...although Tanaka makes sense for teams in rebuild mode too)
Angels - $30.3 available
Pirates - $34.65 available
NOT OBVIOUS, BUT STRONG CONTENDERS:
These teams don't have the cap space that the previous three do, but they also have very droppable expiring contracts that could suddenly put them right in the conversation.
Yankees - $17.4 available + can gain $8.9 from Kendrys Morales - when Morales finally signs with a team, he'd be valuable to Yanks. But if that doesn't happen until after the draft, Yanks may not have a shot at the playoffs anyway. (Would NEVER have guessed that Yanks would be sitting in last in that division.)
Tigers - $9.8 available + can gain $18 from CC Sabathia - swapping a former Yankees ace for a current one? Tigers is off to a good start, but this swap could help him now and later.
Royals - $23.2 available + could gain $6-7 from Dickey or Kuroda - Royals is nearly in the picture in terms of cap space anyway. His team is playing well this year, and Kuroda and Dickey are both still valuable and neither one is a gross overpay. However, Royals also has a great young core to be competitive for the next few years too. Tanaka makes them better going forward, and cutting someone to get that few extra bucks might be worth it.
Rays - $15.8 available + could gain $14 from Andre Ethier - Hanging around .500 right now, Rays also has depth in the OF (Heyward, Myers, Aoki, Crisp), making Ethier that much more expendable.
WILD CARDS?:
These two teams don't have a lot of money, and they don't have any easy way to immediately get the cash needed to make an offer. They each have a bad contract or two, but they extend into 2015. However, these are also two of the most active teams in the league, and if they really wanted to make a play, I'm sure they could pull off a few moves to make it happen.
Braves - $17.1 available. Mark Teixeira isn't terribly value to this team, and he could free up $6.5, which gets Braves to the fringe of the needed salary. However, he also has an option for next year that would vest if he were dropped. Josh Johnson (2015) could add a couple more bucks.
Cardinals - $9.2 available. Brandon Morrow's contract runs through 2015, and cutting him would free up $8.5. Still not enough. Will Venable is expiring and would return $4...Mitch Moreland is expiring and frees up $2. J.J. Hardy frees up $8.5 and could be replaced by Xander. Multiple cuts could make this happen, but a trade seems more Cards' style if he wants to make a run at it. He could trade one of the aforementioned guys and recover more than 50% of their cap. Or could he look to trade Carlos Gonzalez, an elite talent, but the most expensive guy in the league? O's is a contender, what if Cards offered CarGo for Jayson Werth, whose contract ends after this year and frees up $30 to go after Tanaka?
Obviously, this is all for fun, and hell, I don't even know who actually wants Tanaka. If I had to pick a team or two that make a lot of sense to me, I would go with the Royals or the Angels (who have the money and also badly need some improved pitching, but have overpays coming off the books this winter.)
