Post by Cincinnati Reds (Mike) on Jan 14, 2014 21:59:53 GMT -6
With the lack of action in the draft currently, I started to look back at drafts from previous years. I thought it might be interesting to go back and evaluate some of them. After all, hindsight is 20/20 - and wow, were we off on some guys!
Off the top of my head, my nominee for worst pick is Orioles/Astros taking Josh Bell #2 overall (in 2010 I think?) But we'll see how that holds up.
Taking a look at the 2009 draft first (I have the 2008 one saved somewhere but I'd have to dig for it.)
BEST PICKS:
(8) Freddie Freeman, Braves -- it's hard to get a tremendous value at #8 overall, but I'm calling this out for two reasons. #1, if you redrafted today, Freeman would go ahead of all 7 guys picked before him. #2, at the time this seemed like a little bit of a reach by TJ, but it has paid off nicely.
(10) Jordan Zimmermann, Orioles -- again, basically a pick that worked out, and I wanted to find a nice pick by Kevin. He probably climbs a couple spots in a redraft.
(13) Carlos Santana, Cardinals -- he just got extended via the rookie buyout program, so that's a sign of a good pick.
(24) Matt Moore, Tigers -- an Arthur Kay pick! He hasn't quite lived up to expectations, but is still a good value here. Another season or two, and he would have been a Top 3-5 pick.
(63) Domonic Brown, Blue Jays -- I still don't like him that much, but his 2013 alone more than justifies a pick here.
(69) Julio Teheran, Braves -- TJ goes to the Braves organization again, and with a little patience, this pick also pays off.
(81) David Freese, Cardinals -- a solid value, but mainly listed because of the next pick.
(82) Brett Gardner, Cardinals -- with the #81 and 82 picks, Jared got TWO solid fantasy contributors. Neither one rocketed to stardom, but they both greatly exceed the average value here.
(85) Mat Latos, Yankees - I still remember being disappointed when Yanks took Latos. This was a huge value. I think the only guys with arguments over Latos to this point are Freeman and Santana, and Latos beats them in consistency. In his four paid years on his rookie contract, he posted ERA's of 2.92, 3.47, 3.48, and 3.16, with 189, 185, 185, and 187 K's.
(92) Everth Cabrera, Diamondbacks - Not quite a Latos pick, but the SB juice makes for a nice value. Now, hopefully he can remain respectable in other categories without HIS juice.
(97) Koji Uehara, Mets - Not an exciting pick at the time. Koji was a solid reliever his first few years, but wasn't fully appreciated by his teams. After 2013, he is appreciated (and an available free agent!)
(113) Mark Trumbo, Cardinals - 30 HR is 30 HR and he went after Ivan DeJesus Jr.
(119) Jaime Garcia, Diamondbacks - this pick looked better a couple years ago, but his recurring injury problems still don't make this one bad.
(125) Craig Kimbrel, Braves - TJ goes with an under-the-rader Braves prospect AGAIN and it pays off AGAIN! I'm not one to pay for saves, but considering the limit of the rookie contract and his immediate contributions, I think there is an argument to be made that Kimbrel would go #1 in a redraft. Worst case, he's in the top group with Freeman, Santana, and Latos.
WORST PICKS:
(7) Jesus Montero, Reds - Montero's value actually CLIMBED the year or two after this pick, but now it's completely cratered. He's gone from a guy who might have been a .300, 30 HR catcher to a guy who struggles to hit .250 as a Util only.
(12) Gaby Sanchez, Yankees - Actually, maybe this pick wasn't all that bad. He did have two years of 19 HR and made an All Star team! He's just waiver wire filler now though.
(14) Jason Donald, Phillies - Punchless utility infielder who didn't play in the majors in 2013. Too bad there's no fantasy value in "breaking up" perfect games.
(15) Mat Gamel, Diamondbacks - Had trouble staying healthy and had trouble hitting big league pitching. In 240 career AB, he's a .229 hitter with 6 HR.
(16) Scott Elbert, Dodgers - Ended up basically a replacement-level middle reliever. That wouldn't be terrible at #120, but for the 1st round - ouch. After these three guys, I'm officially giving Yanks a pass on Sanchez.
(18) Jeremy Jeffress, Cardinals - 49 major league innings (all as a reliever) with a 1.67 WHIP.
(19) Lou Marson, A's - Along with Carlos Carrasco, a highlight of the package that Philly sent to Cleveland at the deadline to get Cliff Lee. He's turned out to be a no-hit backup catcher, and may be done in MLB.
(23) Tim Alderson, Orioles - Here's a rough Kevin pick. Alderson still hasn't made the majors. His velocity dropped in 2009, and the Giants shipped him to Pittsburgh. He bottomed out in 2010, posting a 6.03 ERA. He's still hanging around in AAA and is 24, so he could get a cup of coffee sometime, but this is clearly a bust. Matt Moore went a pick later.
(26) Aaron Poreda, Braves - Pitched 13.1 innings in 2009 and walked 13 guys. Back in the minors from 2010-2012, he walked 138 guys in 139.2 IP. He last pitched in 2012, but the Rangers signed him to a minor league deal in October.
I didn't go any lower than the 2nd round because there's plenty of no-shows as you get to the later rounds.
Off the top of my head, my nominee for worst pick is Orioles/Astros taking Josh Bell #2 overall (in 2010 I think?) But we'll see how that holds up.
Taking a look at the 2009 draft first (I have the 2008 one saved somewhere but I'd have to dig for it.)
BEST PICKS:
(8) Freddie Freeman, Braves -- it's hard to get a tremendous value at #8 overall, but I'm calling this out for two reasons. #1, if you redrafted today, Freeman would go ahead of all 7 guys picked before him. #2, at the time this seemed like a little bit of a reach by TJ, but it has paid off nicely.
(10) Jordan Zimmermann, Orioles -- again, basically a pick that worked out, and I wanted to find a nice pick by Kevin. He probably climbs a couple spots in a redraft.
(13) Carlos Santana, Cardinals -- he just got extended via the rookie buyout program, so that's a sign of a good pick.
(24) Matt Moore, Tigers -- an Arthur Kay pick! He hasn't quite lived up to expectations, but is still a good value here. Another season or two, and he would have been a Top 3-5 pick.
(63) Domonic Brown, Blue Jays -- I still don't like him that much, but his 2013 alone more than justifies a pick here.
(69) Julio Teheran, Braves -- TJ goes to the Braves organization again, and with a little patience, this pick also pays off.
(81) David Freese, Cardinals -- a solid value, but mainly listed because of the next pick.
(82) Brett Gardner, Cardinals -- with the #81 and 82 picks, Jared got TWO solid fantasy contributors. Neither one rocketed to stardom, but they both greatly exceed the average value here.
(85) Mat Latos, Yankees - I still remember being disappointed when Yanks took Latos. This was a huge value. I think the only guys with arguments over Latos to this point are Freeman and Santana, and Latos beats them in consistency. In his four paid years on his rookie contract, he posted ERA's of 2.92, 3.47, 3.48, and 3.16, with 189, 185, 185, and 187 K's.
(92) Everth Cabrera, Diamondbacks - Not quite a Latos pick, but the SB juice makes for a nice value. Now, hopefully he can remain respectable in other categories without HIS juice.
(97) Koji Uehara, Mets - Not an exciting pick at the time. Koji was a solid reliever his first few years, but wasn't fully appreciated by his teams. After 2013, he is appreciated (and an available free agent!)
(113) Mark Trumbo, Cardinals - 30 HR is 30 HR and he went after Ivan DeJesus Jr.
(119) Jaime Garcia, Diamondbacks - this pick looked better a couple years ago, but his recurring injury problems still don't make this one bad.
(125) Craig Kimbrel, Braves - TJ goes with an under-the-rader Braves prospect AGAIN and it pays off AGAIN! I'm not one to pay for saves, but considering the limit of the rookie contract and his immediate contributions, I think there is an argument to be made that Kimbrel would go #1 in a redraft. Worst case, he's in the top group with Freeman, Santana, and Latos.
WORST PICKS:
(7) Jesus Montero, Reds - Montero's value actually CLIMBED the year or two after this pick, but now it's completely cratered. He's gone from a guy who might have been a .300, 30 HR catcher to a guy who struggles to hit .250 as a Util only.
(12) Gaby Sanchez, Yankees - Actually, maybe this pick wasn't all that bad. He did have two years of 19 HR and made an All Star team! He's just waiver wire filler now though.
(14) Jason Donald, Phillies - Punchless utility infielder who didn't play in the majors in 2013. Too bad there's no fantasy value in "breaking up" perfect games.
(15) Mat Gamel, Diamondbacks - Had trouble staying healthy and had trouble hitting big league pitching. In 240 career AB, he's a .229 hitter with 6 HR.
(16) Scott Elbert, Dodgers - Ended up basically a replacement-level middle reliever. That wouldn't be terrible at #120, but for the 1st round - ouch. After these three guys, I'm officially giving Yanks a pass on Sanchez.
(18) Jeremy Jeffress, Cardinals - 49 major league innings (all as a reliever) with a 1.67 WHIP.
(19) Lou Marson, A's - Along with Carlos Carrasco, a highlight of the package that Philly sent to Cleveland at the deadline to get Cliff Lee. He's turned out to be a no-hit backup catcher, and may be done in MLB.
(23) Tim Alderson, Orioles - Here's a rough Kevin pick. Alderson still hasn't made the majors. His velocity dropped in 2009, and the Giants shipped him to Pittsburgh. He bottomed out in 2010, posting a 6.03 ERA. He's still hanging around in AAA and is 24, so he could get a cup of coffee sometime, but this is clearly a bust. Matt Moore went a pick later.
(26) Aaron Poreda, Braves - Pitched 13.1 innings in 2009 and walked 13 guys. Back in the minors from 2010-2012, he walked 138 guys in 139.2 IP. He last pitched in 2012, but the Rangers signed him to a minor league deal in October.
I didn't go any lower than the 2nd round because there's plenty of no-shows as you get to the later rounds.